Gantry: Commercial Mortgage Production Steady First Half of 2024

Gantry independent commercial mortgage banking firm reported today steady commercial mortgage production through the first half of 2024, with overall Q2 2024 production values essentially mirroring Q1 2024 totals. While the report states that market activity remains subdued in the current rate environment, strong indicators point to increasing demand for new originations moving into the second half of the year. This is expected to be driven by market response to pending maturities, price discovery, and an improving policy climate with less volatility.

“Gantry’s loan production teams have remained consistently busy in the first half of 2024, successfully financing a broad range of assets and transaction types,” said Tim Storey, Principal with Gantry. “Borrowers have had a year to process the current higher rate climate as volatility has transitioned to consistency. Yes, we are in a higher for longer cycle as compared to a decade of historically low rates, but not at a point where most transactions can’t be aligned with the cost of capital still readily available in today’s market. If we see Federal policy shift to lowering rates later this year as expected, we should see a boost in confidence, overall improvement on rates, and an increase in transactional activity.”

Representative transactions from Gantry’s Q2 2024 production include: 

• Retail: $22.1 Million Permanent Acquisition Loan / Cityline at Tenley – Washington D.C.
• Industrial: $16.25 Million Permanent Acquisition Loan / Fed Ex Ground Facility - Portland
• Multifamily: $14.4 Million Construction Takeout Financing / 801 Pearl St – La Jolla
• Self Storage: $15.5 Million Acquisition Financing / Moove In Facilities – New Jersey/Virginia
• Medical Office: $8.2 Million Life Company Refinance / Irvine Medical Office Facility
• Office: $9.5 Million Life Company Refinance / Bureau of Land Management - Phoenix

Production and Trends

The acceptance of a higher-for-longer rate environment has settled in after a less volatile 12-month period where Fed Fund rates have held steady, even while high. Subsequent predictability has helped identify strategies for sales and acquisitions, refinancings, and the new equity requirements of the current rate climate. If the Federal Reserve follows through with rate reductions this year, expectations are for a dormant market to return to life. In a cycle where debt service coverage is more relevant than leverage, conservative borrowers on performing assets are still finding ample cash neutral or cash out solutions for their maturities. Investment transaction volume continues to grow as new equity requirements, pending maturities, and redemption requirements shape mark to market price discovery. 

According to Demetri Koston, Principal with Gantry, “Gantry’s key value proposition in 2024 is our consultative role with clients, focused on outlining specific investments goals and identifying property-specific attributes. We then canvas a roster of vetted lenders across the full spectrum of sources to identify the right loan for a specific business plan. Gantry’s time-tested and often exclusive correspondent relationships with most of the nation’s leading insurance company lenders have proved most valuable for our clients in this challenging cycle. The quality and flexibility of their programs, including attractive spreads, non-recourse terms, certainty of close, and rate lock at application have made them the today’s preferred provider of permanent debt and a new resource for higher yield bridge and participating loans.” 

Relevant trend considerations for commercial mortgage production looking forward include:

• The Federal Reserve continues to signal rate drops later this year.  These adjustments will most likely be marginal before material but should improve borrowing conditions.
• Life companies have emerged as the most consistent source for permanent, fixed rate debt in the current cycle and continue to deploy resources to their loan programs. They are now offering new five-year products with prepay flexibility, participating loans, and bridge programs in pursuit of higher yield.
• The challenges for banks in the current economic cycle continue to sideline them from their once dominant role in commercial mortgage origination. Banks remain an option for large depositors and for variable rate, bridge, or construction originations.
• CMBS continues to hold appeal for assets requiring higher leverage, with interest-only options helping borrowers maximize debt service reach and increase proceeds.
• Debt funds remain active in the bridge-to-bridge, bridge, and construction lending space. Their loans come at a price and require underwriting to a clear exit strategy, but their flexibility and ample liquidity have made them a competitive resource.
• Agencies remain strong competitors on multifamily loans, lengthening amortization schedules and offering interest-only options to maximize debt service potential with even more attractive terms for assets meeting their affordability requirements.
• The multifamily, industrial, and retail asset classes remain favored targets for lender allocations in 2024 and make up a significant percentage of loans to date. Self storage follows closely with similar lender confidence.  While office generally struggles, exceptions exist, with medical office outperforming the broader asset class.
• Retail power centers, neighborhood centers, and credit tenant assets have performed in the current cycle and make up the bulk of allocations to the asset class.
• Multifamily value add investments are struggling in the current market cycle, as softening rents, expiring rate caps, and increasing construction costs make them vulnerable when refinancing. Solutions may require fresh equity or forced sales.
• Gantry continues to specialize in loans for self storage assets in all phases of the ownership cycle, with the firm’s life company correspondents becoming a superior resource for new acquisition, construction takeout, and existing asset financings.
  

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Source: Gantry